From Stratfor.com:
The fact that the event is taking place in Moscow underscores Russia’s vulnerability to militant attacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin — who has earned a reputation for being tough on Islamists and militants and repeatedly has ruled out negotiations with Chechen separatists — well may issue orders for law enforcers to storm the Sharikopogshipnik theater. If so, high casualties are likely.
The case will have a direct impact on intensifying fighting in Chechnya. It also could lead to a cross-border raid into Georgia, which the Kremlin accuses of harboring Chechen militants and providing them a base from which to attack Russian targets. Georgia, however, listens to Washington, not Moscow — and it remains to be seen whether Washington allows Russia to retaliate.
Nevertheless, their shared exposure to militant attacks likely will foster even further cooperation between Russia and the United States on some issues.
Washington previously confirmed links between al Qaeda and the Chechen independence movement, and Stratfor sources within the Russian foreign ministry say the latest development already is shaping Moscow’s diplomatic strategy. They say Moscow will pressure Washington to refocus its efforts on al Qaeda and drop plans to attack Iraq. Few outside the Bush administration believe Iraq has substantial links to al Qaeda. Russia wants to emphasize that, in the aftermath of the Bali bombing and now the Moscow hostage situation, al Qaeda poses a clear and present danger to all countries.