American elections dictate timing of an attack:
There is an opportunity to strike in the autumn of next year, officials say, but waiting until then risks the fighting spilling over into 2004, leaving President Saddam Hussein’s fate unresolved at the start of a presidential election year, something that Republican political strategists are loath to contemplate.
Despite Mr Bush’s early rhetoric against Saddam, his room for manoeuvre has always been limited by the calendar. Reports of an invasion being launched this autumn were always likely to be wide of the mark. Americans go to the polls in early November for the critical mid-term elections and Republican strategists do not want their quest to regain control of the Senate wrecked by the unpredictability of war.
Although Mr Bush enjoys the tacit support of many leading Democrats for taking on Saddam, that could change in the ruthlessly partisan atmosphere likely to prevail in 2004. Mistakes and reverses in a war that left thousands of Americans dead could hurt Mr Bush in a presidential campaign, especially if exploited by a canny Democrat who presented criticism as patriotism.