Letter Never Sent Tell me when to go.

Parameters, a publication of the Army War College, often has some good articles. It’s a good window into how the defense establishment thinks and operates. New issue is out for Spring 2003.

PARAMETERS: US Army War College Quarterly, Spring 2003, Vol. XXXIII, No. 1

1. Taiwan: National pride is perhaps the prime motive for capturing Taiwan. Chinese leaders see Taiwan as the last vestige of the humiliation by Japan and the West during the colonial period when imperial powers carved China into spheres of influence. China reclaimed Hong Kong, the British colony, in 1997, and Macau, the Portuguese colony, in 1999. Taking Taiwan would complete that trilogy and end the civil war with the Nationalists.
2. The China Factor in the India-Pakistan Conflict
3. Sino-US Military Relations Since Tiananmen: Restoration, Progress, and Pitfalls: China handles its military relations independently, and conducts military exchanges and cooperation with other countries on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Military diplomacy should serve the state’s overall diplomacy and the modernization of national defense and the armed forces. In pursuance of this purpose the PLA has actively engaged in external contacts and exchanges in a flexible and practical manner, and made sustained efforts for enhanced mutual trust, friendship, and cooperation with armed forces of other countries, and for regional and world peace, stability, and development.
4. North Korea’s Military Strategy
5. The Concept and Practice of Jihad in Islam: Islamic militancy is still not well understood by Americans. This is partly due to the secrecy which radical Islamic groups practice to protect themselves from the authorities and from outsiders who do not share their views and aims, but also because Western public communications media frequently tend to marginalize such groups. They are dismissed as religious fanatics, anti-Western hooligans, or mindless terrorists, without making an attempt to comprehend the deep discontents that have produced these Islamic groups’ violent actions or the logic of their radical cause which compels them to behave as they do.
6. Nuclear Smuggling: Patterns and Responses
7. Al Qaeda and the Internet: The Danger of “Cyberplanning”: The Internet allows groups with few resources to offset even some huge propaganda machines in advanced countries. The web is an attractive device to those looking for a way to attack major powers via the mass media. The “always on” status of the web allows these individuals not only to access sites day and night but also to scold major powers and treat them with disdain in a public forum. The web can be used to counter facts and logic with the logic of the terrorist. There is no need for the terrorist organization to worry about “the truth,” because ignoring facts is a standard operating procedure.

   Al Qaeda uses polemics on the net not only to offset Western reporting, but also to counter Muslims who don’t toe the party line. It defends the conduct of its war against the West and encourages violence. The web is important to al Qaeda because it can be used to enrage people and neutralize moderate opinion. The website of the Center for Islamic Studies and Research (according to one source, a made-up name), for example, has 11 sections, including reports on fighting in Afghanistan, world media coverage of the conflict, books on jihad theology, videos of hijackers’ testaments, information about prisoners held in Pakistan and Guantanamo Bay, and jihad poetry.26

   It does not pay for any major power to lie, as facts can be easily used against them. Even in the war in Chechnya, there were times when the Chechens would report a successful ambush of a Russian convoy, and the Russians would deny the event ever happened. To prove their point, the Chechens would show video footage of the ambush on the Internet, thus offsetting the credibility of the Russian official media and undercutting the power of their massive propaganda machine. Al Qaeda officials are waiting to do the same to Western media reporting if the opportunity presents itself. In other words, the internet makes government lies more risky.

8. Four Myths about
   Space Power: One way is through special forces actions. Given the growing power of small groups of people to inflict destruction, states may turn to developing massive special operations forces for spreading chaos behind an enemy’s lines. The Soviet Union had a force of 25,000 Spetsnaz troops who would have been unleashed en masse against Western targets from communications and transport systems to nuclear weapons facilities in the event of a third world war.14 North Korea has over 100,000 soldiers in its own special forces units, presumably intended to wreak havoc behind South Korean lines in a future conflict.15 It goes without saying that the chaos created by the most destructive attack a terrorist group like al Qaeda could stage pales compared to what such robust forces could accomplish given the chance.

From Covert Action Quarterly: Backing up Globalization with Military Might:

The Allure of Rich Resources and Cheap Labor

Perhaps most significantly, Yugoslavia has strong elements of a socialist economy —the last in Europe– however tattered it may have become by years of economic destabilization by the West and international financial institutions. Sixty-five percent of all firms are either state-owned or self-managed cooperatives. Most heavy industry is state-owned. Factories bombed during the 79 days of NATO attacks were exclusively state-owned. The banking and financial system is also state-controlled. Only 20 percent of the workforce is in the private sector. (56) Yet like scores of nations around the globe, Yugoslavia fell prey to the international financial institutions. …

UN: Russia Affirms Objection To Second Resolution On Iraq

I’m glad to see all these countries lining up against the US. From Machiavelli’s The Prince:

The Prince who establishes himself in a Province whose laws and language differ from those of his own people, ought also to make himself the head and protector of his feebler neighbours, and endeavour to weaken the stronger, and must see that by no accident shall any other stranger as powerful as himself find an entrance there. For it will always happen that some such person will be called in by those of the Province who are discontented either through ambition or fear; as we see of old the Romans brought into Greece by the Aetolians, and in every other country that they entered, invited there by its inhabitants. And the usual course of things is that so soon as a formidable stranger enters a Province, all the weaker powers side with him, moved thereto by the ill-will they bear towards him who has hitherto kept them in subjection. So that in respect of these lesser powers, no trouble is needed to gain them over, for at once, together, and of their own accord, they throw in their lot with the government of the stranger. The new Prince, therefore, has only to see that they do not increase too much in strength, and with his own forces, aided by their good will, can easily subdue any who are powerful, so as to remain supreme in the Province. He who does not manage this matter well, will soon lose whatever he has gained, and while he retains it will find in it endless troubles and annoyances.

I think this is what is happening. The weaker nations are banding together to check the power of the United States. In that sense, a balance of power can be a positive situation.

IHT: If Saddam were to go, experts still see violence. It’s going to be a mess.

New Scientist.com: US plans for mini-nuke arsenal revealed:

A leaked Pentagon document has confirmed that the US is considering the introduction of a new breed of smaller nuclear weapons designed for use in conventional warfare. Such a move would mean abandoning global arms treaties.

The document, obtained by the Los Alamos Study Group, a nuclear weapons watchdog based in the US, describes plans for a gathering of senior military officials and nuclear scientists at the US Strategic Command in Omaha, Nebraska, during the week of 4 August. …

I can’t believe there are missile launchers in our nation’s capital. It’s insane. Is this a real response to a credible threat or just a way to scare people ahead of this Iraq charade? I wish you could trust someone to tell you the truth.

Missile Launchers Positioned in D.C.:

The missile launchers that can be seen from the South Capitol Street bridge are the result of the government’s planning efforts.

The protection measures would include Customs Service aircraft flying high, keeping track of air traffic over the metro area, Air National Guard fighter jets patrolling above and Army radar systems positioned alongside Avenger air defense missile systems mounted on HumVees.

The government put these measures in place during President Bush’s January State of the Union message, then pulled them back. They went back into place when officials determined there was an increased likelihood for terrorist attacks and increased the nation’s Homeland Security alert status to orange from yellow.

You can be relatively certain no one will air it. Too bad.

Ahead of the scheduled GF2, Never Forget War, or whatever they’re calling this planned slaughter of thousands of innocents, Venezuelan banks are easing up on their rebellion against the Venezuelan government. No doubt important folks in South American banking got calls from the Bush administration along the lines of ‘hey, don’t put Venezuelan oil supplies in jeopardy by trying to overthrow the democratically elected leader of Venezuela until AFTER we’ve turned Iraq into the jewel in the American crown.’

As the invisible hand of capital and the crushing boot of military conquest work well together, Venezuelan banks started letting people take out their own money again and resumed normal hours. The global elite will turn up the heat on Chavez after Iraq has been turned into glass.